Statistical analysis of crime in Turkey

Onur Abdullah Gunduz

Bachelor's thesis

Abstract:

The thesis analyzes the statistical relationship between crime rates and the major socio-economic factors in Türkiye for the years 2009-2023. Overall, the aim is to discover the influence that urbanization, unemployment, inflation, and GDP growth exert on the patterns of crime and to explore the demographic profiling of the criminal population in terms of age, gender, and nationality. With the determination of the most dominant factors for crime, the study aims to provide evidence-based information to be applied in the creation of crime-prevention. The method used for the research involves the use of descriptive statistics and multiple regression. Data for crime is obtained from the General Directorate of Judicial Records and Statistics, while rate of urbanization, rate of unemployment, inflation, and GDP growth are obtained from the World Bank. Descriptive statistical analysis provides the overall trend in crime by year and by demographic distribution, while the statistical significance of the socio-economic factors explaining the trend in crime is established by the application of multiple regression. Multiple regression models are reduced to the most suitable predictors in the final model. The strongest predictors of crime rates in Türkiye are inflation and urbanization, according to the multiple regression analysis. GDP growth and unemployment were found to be unrelated to crime at the statistical level. Demographic analysis shows that the most frequent offenders are male offenders aged 18 and above. Foreign nationals were more criminally active in the past, but the gap between Turkish and foreign offenders dropped significantly throughout the years, particularly in the recent past. Further, external factors such as the 2018 economic crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic introduced fluctuations into the rate of crime, with a noticeable spike in 2021 to be succeeded by a sudden drop in the subsequent years. The study confirms that crime-prevention policies should focus on improving the infrastructure and social facilities in cities to combat the negative impact of urbanization and implement economic policies to tackle economic instability. Targeted interventions for specific groups, particularly youth, through employment and rehabilitation programs can also be helpful in decreasing crime. The study gives an overall statistical picture of crime in Türkiye, providing valuable information for policy-makers and law enforcement officials to utilize in the creation of effective crime-prevention policies.

Keywords

crime statistics, Türkiye, socio-economic factors, urbanization, inflation, regression analysis, offender demographics

Jazyk práce: English

Datum vytvoření / odevzdání či podání práce: 26. 3. 2025

Obhajoba závěrečné práce

• Obhajoba proběhla 20. 5. 2025
• Vedúci: Ing. Zuzana Pacáková, Ph.D.
• Oponent: Karel Tomšík, Ing.

Czech University of Life Sciences Prague

Faculty of Economics and Management

Bachelor programme:
Informatics