Social-ecological aspects of climate change impacts and adaptation in southern Africa

Ing. Alpo Mpande Kapuka

Doctoral thesis

Abstract:

Southern Africa is characterized by a wide range of ecosystems, including savannas, grasslands, forests, and wetlands, as well as a mixture of rural and urban communities. These social and ecological systems are, however, being significantly impacted by climate change. This thesis uses systematic literature review, ecosystem modelling, GIS, vulnerability assessment approaches, and the social-ecological system framework to investigate the impact of climate change on social and ecological systems of southern Africa, covering eighteen countries (36% of the continent) and local populations’ responses to these challenges. The thesis consists of four original scientific publications addressing various aspects of climate change impacts and adaptation in southern Africa. Two studies, Kapuka et al., (2022) and Kapuka & Hlásny, (2021) focused on literature review to identify knowledge gaps in the current understanding of climate change impacts and adaptation in ten southern African countries. The results revealed significant advances in climate change research in southern Africa since 2005 in terms of the number of publications and African authors in first positions, however, regional inequalities are noticeable. The findings further identified barriers in climate change research in the region, such as insufficient use of modern technologies, models, climate change scenarios, and Earth Observation products. The review also revealed high diversity of observed and projected climate change impacts on terrestrial, marine, and freshwater ecosystems of southern Africa, including local extinction, increased mortality, and loss of habitats. Measures aiming to mitigate these impacts included active ecosystem management, policy development, and increased research and monitoring. The study, Kapuka et al., (2022) modelled the vulnerability of eight major woody species to climate change in southern Africa, covering eighteen countries, as well as implications for the provisioning of ecosystem services such as timber, energy, and food. The results portrayed distinct regional differences in species range vulnerability, including hotspot and coldspot areas (i.e., areas where climatic suitability of multiple species are projected to retreat or persist). The baseline suitability range of Mopane (Colophosperm mopane) was least affected by climate change, rendering it a regional winner. While the baseline range of African rosewood (Guibourtia coleosperma) declined entirely rendering the species a regional loser. Timber provision was the most affected, while species providing food and energy were affected less. Finally, Kapuka & Hlásny (2020) focused on identifying patterns of socio-ecological vulnerability in Namibia. The results show that populations with the poorest socio-economic performance were mostly distributed in the northern districts, which are also exposed to the highest frequency and severity of natural hazards, particularly to floods and wildfires. This coincidence of highly sensitive populations with high exposure to hazards renders these populations particularly vulnerable. The results of the thesis can inform targeted adaptation and conservation actions and strategies, which are currently lacking in many African regions. The results can support the development of national and regional management strategies and investment priorities and contribute towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. The findings further have implications for climate change adaptation and ecosystem conservation, and the formulation of future research priorities for southern Africa.

Keywords

vulnerability, ecosystem management, climate change adaptation, social-ecological system, southern Africa

Language used: English

Date on which the thesis was submitted / produced: 15. 9. 2023

Thesis defence

• Supervisor: prof. RNDr. Tomáš Hlásny, PhD.
• Reader: Vilém Jarský, Ph.D., prof. Ing., Tomáš Hák, externi, Ferenc Gyuris, externi

Czech University of Life Sciences Prague

Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences

Doctoral programme:
Global Change Forestry