The Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on Currency Movements and Economic Growth in Kazakhstan

Shynggyskhan Yeshev

Diplomová práce

Abstract:

Kazakhstan is a country that is heavily dependent on the export of natural resources and thus influenced by the oil price change, as well as other commodities. Overview of existing research on the similar topics and literature review of academic sources was performed in order to understand the current situation on this topic. This paper will examine the correlation between Real GDP, exchange rate, oil price, and inflation rates. The Ordinary Least Squares and Two-Stage Least Squares models are the major empirical tools for the analysis, and the data set used for the purpose is a time series data set from 2001 to 2024. The TSLS model attempts to resolve the endogeneity problem faced by oil price to obtain correct and meaningful estimates of the relationships. The OLS model is the first estimation of the relationships. The increase of oil price is positively correlated with the economic development (GDP growth) in Kazakhstan, as per the empirical results. The empirical results also revealed a significant negative relationship between oil price and interest rates. Other macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth, inflation, and OPEC production are also considered for the purpose. These results further underscore the importance of diversification of economies of Kazakhstan to be more insensitive toward the oil price shocks. The research arrives at the conclusion that the effect of oil price on Kazakhstani tenge and United States dollar exchange rate is significant, and the GDP growth is also affected by oil price shocks.

Keywords

GDP growth, exchange rate, oil price, inflation rates, fiscal policies, monetary policies, two-stage least square, Kazakhstan, OPEC

Jazyk práce: angličtina

Datum vytvoření / odevzdání či podání práce: 2. 4. 2026

Obhajoba závěrečné práce

• Vedoucí: prof. Ing. Mansoor Maitah, Ph.D. Ph.D.
• Oponent: Robert Koželský, externi

Česká zemědělská univerzita v Praze

Provozně ekonomická fakulta

Magisterský studijní program:
Economics and Management