Crude oil price analysis in Azerbaijan

Bc. Elkhan Aliev

Master's thesis

Abstract:

Oil is one of the most important energy resources and the leader in the global consumption of energy. Therefore, investigating how the trends and tendencies in the oil sector affect the activities run by states is important and relevant. Azerbaijanis national economy is largely dependent on oil resources, and therefore this thesis aimed to investigate to which extent the changing dynamics of international oil prices affect Azerbaijan’s economic development. Two hypotheses tested. Hypotheses were following:H1: Dropping oil prices have direct interconnection with Azerbaijan's dropping GDP and vice versa. H2: The current dynamics of oil prices represent negative tendencies for Azerbaijan's subsequent economic growth. For this purpose theoretical overview, retrospective analysis, deductive thinking and regression analysis were used as a specific tool allowing investigating.Results of the research have identified that there is indeed an interconnection between the international oil market conjuncture and the current economic situation in Azerbaijan.Based on these results, we conclude that Azerbaijan is dependent on the overall oil market conjuncture. Azerbaijan’s total oil exports have significantly dropped recently, which is due to the significantly lower oil prices. As a result, the Azerbaijani national economy is currently in a condition of recession.

Keywords

oil market, economy of Azerbaijan, energy resources, economic growth, gross domestic product

Language used: English

Date on which the thesis was submitted / produced: 28. 3. 2019

Thesis defence

• Supervisor: doc. Ing. Mansoor Maitah, Ph.D. Ph.D.

Czech University of Life Sciences Prague

Faculty of Economics and Management

Master programme / field:
Economics and Management / Economics and Management