US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTORAL CAMPAIGN: the role of polling in primary elections

Alessandro Da Rold

Master's thesis

Abstract:

The analysis presented in the following dissertation investigates the importance of considering the level of decisiveness in pre-electoral early polls, when it comes to primary electoral forecasting. In light of the current electoral campaign for the presidential nomination in the United States, an experiment was conducted at the North Carolina State University in order to test hypotheses related to the accuracy of pre-electoral surveys. The core of the analysis regarded one single poll conducted over a five days' period in November 2015. A specific question set was included in the survey questionnaire in order to improve the understanding of people's decision during the pre-electoral period. The results have clearly supported the idea that previsions based on early-polls are little predictive of the final outcomes, if done as average mainstream media outlets usually do. Moreover, the analysis offers important case studies regarding the specific matter of early primary polls, and gives an understandable view of how the process functions in the field of electoral forecasting.

Abstract:

The analysis presented in the following dissertation investigates the importance of considering the level of decisiveness in pre-electoral early polls, when it comes to primary electoral forecasting. In light of the current electoral campaign for the presidential nomination in the United States, an experiment was conducted at the North Carolina State University in order to test hypotheses related to the accuracy of pre-electoral surveys. The core of the analysis regarded one single poll conducted over a five days' period in November 2015. A specific question set was included in the survey questionnaire in order to improve the understanding of people's decision during the pre-electoral period. The results have clearly supported the idea that previsions based on early-polls are little predictive of the final outcomes, if done as average mainstream media outlets usually do. Moreover, the analysis offers important case studies regarding the specific matter of early primary polls, and gives an understandable view of how the process functions in the field of electoral forecasting.

Keywords

PackPoll, Early-Polls, Public Opinion, American Elections 2016

Keywords

American Elections 2016, PackPoll, Early-Polls, Public Opinion

Language used: English

Date on which the thesis was submitted / produced: 21. 6. 2015

Thesis defence

• Date of defence: 30. 5. 2016
• Supervisor: Vladimíra Dvořáková
• Reader: Jan Němec

Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze

Master programme / field:
Mezinárodní ekonomické vztahy / International and Diplomatic Studies