Impact of refugee crisis on the North Rhine-Westphalian labor market

Katja Stammen

Doctoral thesis

Abstract:

The "refugee crisis" poses a great challenge to the most populous federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia. The enormous influx of refugees since the middle of 2014 has also raised fears among politicians and the population about the negative effects on the labour market. Therefore, the focus of this paper is on the labour market effects of refugee flows in the period 2015 - 2017 on the North Rhine-Westphalian labour market. The corresponding empirical studies predominantly come to the conclusion that refugee-induced migration leads to a reduction in the general em-ployment rate and the wage level, at least in the short to medium term. Due to the generally lower level of education compared to the native population, there is a cer-tain substitutability between refugees and low-skilled natives, which reinforces the effects. Within the framework of a survey and statistical data analysis, the educatio-nal structure of refugees in North Rhine-Westphalia was ana-lyzed. The effects on the unemployment rate and the wage level were examined by means of a time series analysis using the ARIMA model. It was found that refugees are generally less quali-fied than the native population of North Rhine-Westphalia. Among other things, it was shown that 41.7% of asylum seekers from the years 2015 - 2017 have no school-leaving qualifications or only primary school knowledge. Furthermore, 75% have not undergone any training. Further analysis has shown that refugee flows have ne-ither a significant impact on the unemployment rate nor on wage levels. In summary, it can be stated that the immigration of highly qualified workers is to be given pre-ference over the humanitarian aid of low-qualified refugees from an economic point of view.

Abstract:

The "refugee crisis" poses a great challenge to the most populous federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia. The enormous influx of refugees since the middle of 2014 has also raised fears among politicians and the population about the negative effects on the labour market. Therefore, the focus of this paper is on the labour market effects of refugee flows in the period 2015 - 2017 on the North Rhine-Westphalian labour market. The corresponding empirical studies predominantly come to the conclusion that refugee-induced migration leads to a reduction in the general em-ployment rate and the wage level, at least in the short to medium term. Due to the generally lower level of education compared to the native population, there is a cer-tain substitutability between refugees and low-skilled natives, which reinforces the effects. Within the framework of a survey and statistical data analysis, the educatio-nal structure of refugees in North Rhine-Westphalia was ana-lyzed. The effects on the unemployment rate and the wage level were examined by means of a time series analysis using the ARIMA model. It was found that refugees are generally less quali-fied than the native population of North Rhine-Westphalia. Among other things, it was shown that 41.7% of asylum seekers from the years 2015 - 2017 have no school-leaving qualifications or only primary school knowledge. Furthermore, 75% have not undergone any training. Further analysis has shown that refugee flows have ne-ither a significant impact on the unemployment rate nor on wage levels. In summary, it can be stated that the immigration of highly qualified workers is to be given pre-ference over the humanitarian aid of low-qualified refugees from an economic point of view.

Keywords

refugees, labour market, supply shock

Keywords

refugees, labour market, supply shock

Language used: English

Date on which the thesis was submitted / produced: 9. 10. 2019

Thesis defence

• Supervisor: doc. Ing. Petr Blížkovský, Ph.D.
• Reader: Jiřina Jílková, externi, Milan Palát, externi, René Leray, externi

Mendel University in Brno

Faculty of Business and Economics

Doctoral programme / field:
Economics and Management / Business Management and Economics