Assessment of EU Conflict Early Warning System on the Case of Georgian Russian War of 2008

Mgr. Nino Khurtsilava

Master's thesis

Abstract:

The goal of the paper is the assessment of European Early Warning Systems, based on diverse approaches and various empirical models. It will evaluate the models’ relative usefulness on the case of Georgian Russian war of 2008, by applying the indicators and discussing the preventive mechanisms. The paper will go through the offered EWS by the international community and their compliance with the given case. It will discuss whether the signs were present, in order to point the evidence and answer the question whether the lack of prevention was present or the indicators were not appropriate. According to hypothesis, ‘Successful mechanisms of Early Warning System can be applied on the case of Russian-Georgian war of 2008, some of which could have foreseen and prevented outbreak of the violent conflict, furthermore, the new triggers found, are capable of improving the existing design of EWSs examined.’ In order to check the validity of the hypothesis, the paper uses the research method of single and comparative case study. It will compare two or more Early Warning Systems and their capabilities on a single given case. It collects data and analyzes followed by identification of scenarios.

Keywords

Key terms, Early Warning Systems, Conflict Prevention, Forecasting Instability, Fragile State

Language used: English

Date on which the thesis was submitted / produced: 15. 5. 2017

Thesis defence

• Date of defence: 8. 6. 2017
• Supervisor: Mgr. Martin Chovančík, Ph.D.
• Reader: Mgr. Jana Urbanovská, Ph.D.

Masaryk University

Faculty of Social Studies

Master programme / field:
Political Science / European Politics (Eng.)