Evaluating the Predictive Power of Moving Averages and Relative Strength Index in Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Forecasting

Bc. Kaung Set Lin Htike

Bakalářská práce

Anotace:

This study analyses the effectiveness of Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Averages (MA) in predicting price movements in Bitcoin and Ethereum. The accuracy and profitability of the indicators were tested by applying logistic regression models and manual back-testing on 4-hourly data. The performance is tested across bullish, bearish, and sideway states. The study reveals that, with proper risk ma-nagement strategies, MA and RSI methods can generate consistent returns, making them useful to individual investors as well as the fin-tech industry.

Abstract:

This study analyses the effectiveness of Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Averages (MA) in predicting price movements in Bitcoin and Ethereum. The accuracy and profitability of the indicators were tested by applying logistic regression models and manual back-testing on 4-hourly data. The performance is tested across bullish, bearish, and sideway states. The study reveals that, with proper risk ma-nagement strategies, MA and RSI methods can generate consistent returns, making them useful to individual investors as well as the fin-tech industry.

Keywords

Cryptocurrency Trading, Technical Analysis, Logistic Regression, Moving Averages (MA), Relative Strength Index (RSI), Backtesting Strategies, Market Forecasting

Jazyk práce: angličtina

Datum vytvoření / odevzdání či podání práce: 25. 4. 2025

Obhajoba závěrečné práce

• Obhajoba proběhla 11. 6. 2025
• Vedoucí: doc. Ahad Zareravasan, PhD
• Oponent: PhD Seyed Mojtaba Hosseini Bamakan

Masarykova univerzita

Ekonomicko-správní fakulta

Bakalářský studijní program / obor:
Business Management and Finance / Business Management and Finance