Predictive distribution modelling of European tree species using Pliocene and future climatic data

Leandro Eusebio

Master's thesis

Abstract:

Forest ecosystems, especially the species that define them, often reflect the environmental conditions surrounding them. Thus logically, prominent forest species will be found in areas in which their ecological niche is suitable for the external conditions being experienced. This may be a cause for concern in European forests due to climate change. It can be inferred that the distribution of suitable areas for prominent tree species will shift in the coming decades due to changes in the temperature and water regimes. Warm periods have occurred in the Earth's past, the most recent is the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, mPWP, between 3 to 3.25 million years ago. This period represents an interval of warm climate which is very similar to future warming scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5(Burke et al 2018). Thus, species distribution modeling of prominent European tree species for both mPWP and future scenarios may hold insight on the distribution of forest ecosystems within the respective time periods. Visualizing the similarities between mPWP and future tree distributions may aid in the conservation and protection of these ecosystems

Keywords

climate change, species distribution models, tree species, Europe, fossil data

Language used: English

Date on which the thesis was submitted / produced: 3. 4. 2023

Thesis defence

• Date of defence: 17. 5. 2023
• Supervisor: Ing. Jan Douda, Ph.D.
• Reader: Jan Divíšek, externi

Czech University of Life Sciences Prague

Faculty of Environmental Sciences

Master programme:
Nature Conservation