Predictive distribution modelling of European tree species using Pliocene and future climatic data

Leandro Eusebio

Diplomová práce

Abstract:

Forest ecosystems, especially the species that define them, often reflect the environmental conditions surrounding them. Thus logically, prominent forest species will be found in areas in which their ecological niche is suitable for the external conditions being experienced. This may be a cause for concern in European forests due to climate change. It can be inferred that the distribution of suitable areas for prominent tree species will shift in the coming decades due to changes in the temperature and water regimes. Warm periods have occurred in the Earth's past, the most recent is the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, mPWP, between 3 to 3.25 million years ago. This period represents an interval of warm climate which is very similar to future warming scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5(Burke et al 2018). Thus, species distribution modeling of prominent European tree species for both mPWP and future scenarios may hold insight on the distribution of forest ecosystems within the respective time periods. Visualizing the similarities between mPWP and future tree distributions may aid in the conservation and protection of these ecosystems

Keywords

climate change, species distribution models, tree species, Europe, fossil data

Jazyk práce: angličtina

Datum vytvoření / odevzdání či podání práce: 3. 4. 2023

Obhajoba závěrečné práce

• Obhajoba proběhla 17. 5. 2023
• Vedoucí: Ing. Jan Douda, Ph.D.
• Oponent: Jan Divíšek, externi

Česká zemědělská univerzita v Praze

Fakulta životního prostředí

Magisterský studijní program:
Nature Conservation