Comparative assessment of unemployment rate development in the Czech Republic and the European Union

Helena Rýparová

Bachelor's thesis

Abstract:

This bachelor thesis is dealing with development of unemployment in the Czech Republic as well as other states, which are a part of the Visegrad group and the European Union. The goal is to assess whether the trend is increasing, decreasing or remaining stable in the last ten years (2008 – 2018) and comparison between chosen areas – the European Union and the states of the Visegrad group, which are the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland and Hungary. The first part of the thesis includes a general concept of unemployment, the theoretical background of economic theory, definitions of terms, the explanation of statistical analysis used further on in the thesis and information about the structure of unemployment in individual observed areas. The practical part is focused on the application of statistical methods such as time series, decomposition of time series and correlation analysis. The output of the thesis is the forecast for the upcoming year. The results of the forecast show, that the unemployment rate in all the observed areas will keep on decreasing and indicate the lowest rates of unemployment in the past ten years. Based on the correlation analysis, the countries with the most similar development of unemployment rate were Poland and Slovakia. On the other hand, there was a low level of correlation between Hungary and the European Union.

Keywords

unemployment, labour market, regression, time series, trend, forecast

Language used: English

Date on which the thesis was submitted / produced: 20. 3. 2020

Thesis defence

• Supervisor: Ing. Tomáš Hlavsa, Ph.D.

Czech University of Life Sciences Prague

Faculty of Economics and Management

Bachelor programme / field:
Economics and Management / Economics and Management