Predikční modelování v archeologii

Mgr. Miroslav ŠÍP

Disertační práce

Predictive Modeling in Archaeology

Anotace:

Jedná se o pokus o vygenerování obecného modelu strukturace prostoru pravěkými komunitami. Tento model byl vytvořen v několika krocích: První je příprava datové základny, skládající se ze souboru revidovaných a lokalizovaných archeologických dat a nearcheologických dat, například digitální model reliéfu a z něj odvozené vrstvy, hydrologický model a tak dále. Poté následuje analýza krajinných vlastností sídelních komponent pomocí geografických systémů. Dalším krokem je syntéza, resp. statistické vyhodnocení dat a vytvoření predikční mapy, po které následuje testování modelu (predikční mapy) na jiném, nezávislém souboru archeologických dat z téhož území. Na konci je diskutována možná interpretace modelu v pojmech pravěké kultury, resp. pokus o vysvětlení mechanizmů, jež vedly minulé komunity k prostorové strukturaci jejich areálů aktivit

Abstract:

This dissertation deals with the archaeological predictive modelling - a field which is becoming very perspective in archaeology. The thesis is divided into three parts. The first part deals with a general introduction of the prediction model. It illuminates the difference between the inductive and deductive approaches in modeling and give a summary of the current debate about both methods in contemporary archaeology. The next part contains of the definition of prediction itself. The preliminary findings point out the difference between archaeological academic prediction methods and cultural heritage oriented branch of worldwide archaeology. This chapter reviews some of the prediction model definitions discovered so far and the features which such predictive model should have. It also describes the nature of the archaeological data and qualities needed for successful predictive modeling along with examples of predictive models already used in the world. Another part of this chapter describes nonarcheological variables already used in prediction. We have attempted to classify them into groups depending on what purpose or dimension they concern. By these dimensions we mean their practical features, social significance and symbolic meaning. At the end of this chapter we will analyze the importance of model testing. It summarizes the most commonly used archaeological data, methods and terms used for such tests.The second part attempts to list archaeological projects related to predictive modeling for the past fifteen years: both in Europe and worldwide along with a brief description of these projects with an emphasis on specific and non-standard procedures used in creating these models.The third part deals with the creation of the prediction model for Melnik area. It begins with preliminary theoretical model as a basis for the predictive model creation. It also contains definitions of the examined area as well as a record of the archaeological resources and variables used to create predictive models. Another section contains a list of nonarchaeological variables used for predictive modeling. It describes how they are specifically used in other known archaeological studies, their contribution to the prediction model in terms of the theoretical model, the variability within a set of components for various archaeological and technical realization of the predictive modeling.In total, thirteen nonarchaeological variables were used. These included the altitude, slope, slope orientation, amount of sunlight, the distance to the peaks, the distance to the local maximum, distance to the nearest watercourse, the distance to edge, distance to the crest line, ratio of vertical and horizontal distance from the water flow, vertical distance above the water flow and scope of the flood land. This part describes the methods of creating predictive model. There are two methods and Multi-Criteria evaluation, well known in archaeology, and a logit model, which appears in archaeology for the first time. The last part is deals with model testing generated in this way, comparison of their effectiveness and attempts to describe and to interpret the difference of the

Klíčová slova

Archeologie, predikce, GIS, prostorová archeologie, predikční modelování

Jazyk práce: čeština

Datum vytvoření / odevzdání či podání práce: 30. 6. 2011

Identifikátor: 37804

Obhajoba závěrečné práce

ZÁPADOČESKÁ UNIVERZITA V PLZNI

Fakulta filozofická

Doktorský studijní program / obor:
Historické vědy / Archeologie