Defence spending and internal investment debt of the Bucharest Nine

Bc. Vladyslava Pokutnia

Bachelor's thesis

Abstract:

This thesis examines the defense investment trajectories of the Bucharest Nine from 2014 to 2024, assessing their adherence to NATO’s post-Wales Summit benchmarks: 2% of GDP for defense, with 20% of that amount directed toward equipment and modernization. The concept of investment debt is then introduced to quantify cumulative shortfalls between recommended and actual spending, highlighting gaps that continue to weaken alliance cohesion and deterrence posture. Using a mixed-methods approach grounded in budget analysis and literature review, the study evaluates national progress toward modernization. It finds that while countries like Poland and Estonia have made sustained, coherent advances, other member countries remain constrained by fiscal volatility and fragmented planning. Finally, a comparative lens situates the B9’s progress alongside that of the main actors in the arena, the UK and the US, revealing deeper differences in strategic culture and defense planning. The study concludes that meeting NATO’s benchmarks is not enough. Credible deterrence requires institutional continuity, reduced investment debt, and readiness frameworks that extend beyond reactive cycles.

Abstract:

This thesis examines the defense investment trajectories of the Bucharest Nine from 2014 to 2024, assessing their adherence to NATO’s post-Wales Summit benchmarks: 2% of GDP for defense, with 20% of that amount directed toward equipment and modernization. The concept of investment debt is then introduced to quantify cumulative shortfalls between recommended and actual spending, highlighting gaps that continue to weaken alliance cohesion and deterrence posture. Using a mixed-methods approach grounded in budget analysis and literature review, the study evaluates national progress toward modernization. It finds that while countries like Poland and Estonia have made sustained, coherent advances, other member countries remain constrained by fiscal volatility and fragmented planning. Finally, a comparative lens situates the B9’s progress alongside that of the main actors in the arena, the UK and the US, revealing deeper differences in strategic culture and defense planning. The study concludes that meeting NATO’s benchmarks is not enough. Credible deterrence requires institutional continuity, reduced investment debt, and readiness frameworks that extend beyond reactive cycles.

Keywords

Bucharest Nine (B9), NATO, The Wales Summit 2014, 2% GDP Benchmark, 20% Equipment Investment, Investment Debt, Spending Efficacy

Language used: English

Date on which the thesis was submitted / produced: 25. 4. 2025

Thesis defence

• Date of defence: 9. 6. 2025
• Supervisor: Ing. Vojtěch Müllner, Ph.D.
• Reader: PhD Dinara Alpysbayeva

Masaryk University

Faculty of Economics and Administration

Bachelor programme / field:
Economics and Public Policy / Economics and Public Policy