MONETARY POLICY AND NATURAL DISASTERS: ANALYSIS FOR LATIN AMERICA

Catarina De Ester BRAGA

Diplomová práce

Anotace:

Latin America is a tropical region prone to natural disasters; between 1970 and 2018, 2.242 natural disasters took place in the region, resulting in more than USD 320 billion in damages, 295 million affected persons and 509 thousand deaths. Building resilience and preparedness are key elements for the area's development, specifically in a context where climate change effects on natural disasters is unknown. With the aim to contribute to the Sustainable Development Goal Target 17.13 (Global Macroeconomic Stability) and the Sendai Framework Priority 2 (Strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster risk), this thesis aims to assess whether monetary policy in the region is effective in absorbing spillover effects of disasters on economic growth. By running a panel analysis on 27 countries in the timeframe of 1970-2018 with random effects, the results reflect that the inflation target and flexible exchange rate are not contributing to alleviate pressure the external shock puts on growth. An exception carries with countries with a low rate of Central Bank governors' irregular turnover. This indicates that the inflation targets and floating exchange rate frameworks are unable to absorb the shocks due to inefficient management, rather than incompatibility with Latin America.

Abstract:

Latin America is a tropical region prone to natural disasters; between 1970 and 2018, 2.242 natural disasters took place in the region, resulting in more than USD 320 billion in damages, 295 million affected persons and 509 thousand deaths. Building resilience and preparedness are key elements for the area's development, specifically in a context where climate change effects on natural disasters is unknown. With the aim to contribute to the Sustainable Development Goal Target 17.13 (Global Macroeconomic Stability) and the Sendai Framework Priority 2 (Strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster risk), this thesis aims to assess whether monetary policy in the region is effective in absorbing spillover effects of disasters on economic growth. By running a panel analysis on 27 countries in the timeframe of 1970-2018 with random effects, the results reflect that the inflation target and flexible exchange rate are not contributing to alleviate pressure the external shock puts on growth. An exception carries with countries with a low rate of Central Bank governors' irregular turnover. This indicates that the inflation targets and floating exchange rate frameworks are unable to absorb the shocks due to inefficient management, rather than incompatibility with Latin America.

Klíčová slova

Monetary Policy, Natural Disasters, Central Banks, Latin America

Jazyk práce: čeština

Datum vytvoření / odevzdání či podání práce: 31. 5. 2019

Obhajoba závěrečné práce

• Obhajoba proběhla 25. 6. 2019
• Vedoucí: prof. Pascale Combes Motel

UNIVERZITA PALACKÉHO V OLOMOUCI

Přírodovědecká fakulta

Magisterský studijní program / obor:
Geography / International Development Studies