Spatio-temporal analysis of landscape changes in different land use

Chukwudi NWAOGU

Doctoral thesis

Predictive modeling of land-use in Central Europe

Abstract:

The aim of this thesis was to analyzing landscape changes by identifying the changes, the drivers of the changes, and impacts on the land resources in different land use using GIS in combination of some statistical techniques. The first part of the work focused on the introduction and definition of the core concepts in relation to landscape changes. For examples, landscapes types and change drivers were treated. Description of some selected GIS softwares applicable for landscape studies, land use change models, their applications and comparisons were also discussed. Furthermore, the concept of space-time analysis in GIS, its theory and rationale were also addressed. The practical part of this thesis was based on four case studies which cut across different geographical regions and in different land use scenario. To achieve the objectives of this work, several materials and methods which are appropriate in relation to the current techniques developed for spatio-temporal analysis of landscape changes in various land use scenario were applied. These ranges from the materials used for data collection such as geospatial oriented instruments to the methods of data collection and analyses including the GIS, models, statistics, and multivariate analyses approaches. Each case study has specific objective which linked to the main aim(goal) of the study. The case study 1 (Onitsha - a growing urban hub centre in southeast, Nigeria) focused on evaluating change in land use and its effects on the landscape from 1987 to 2015. Increase in built-up areas because of rapid population growth which consequently led to acute deforestation and intensified agricultural activities was observed as the main driving forces of landscape changes in this case study. Regarding case study 2 (Jos, northern Nigeria landslide) which focused on identifying Jos landslide vulnerable areas, driving forces and effects on landscape; after analyses it was concluded human activities such as built-up was also a primary driver which induced other remote factors that prompted the landslide and producing landscape changes as final consequence. Case study 3 (Imo watershed), also revealed that the forest which recorded more than 40% decrease suffered more degradation from the driving forces - anthropogenic activities (such as agriculture, urbanization and deforestation). In this study, the impacts of land use change on other factors like soil erosion and soil features were also examined in relation to complementary effects on landscape. The final case study (Dřevnice River Basin, Czech Republic), also indicated that the forest area had substantial effect from the driving forces of change relative to other land use. Though, forest areas were observed to have shown decrease rates in all the case studies yet, this decline was lower in the case study 4 (Czech Republic) when compared with case studies 1, 2, and 3 (Nigeria). The reason for this could be because of differences in management and socio-economic circumstances. For instance, Czech Republic as a developed country is establishing more and better policies and practices geared towards enhancing nature conservation and sustainable environment relative to the developing country (Nigeria) where such polices are weak. The primary driving forces were almost relatively similar in all the case studies however, case study 4 showed marginal difference with higher number of identified driving forces. This might be attributed to the differences in geographical settings, socio-economics, and methods. For example, individually owned farmlands and distance from pipelines were not feasible in Nigeria scenarios.

Abstract:

The aim of this thesis was to analyzing landscape changes by identifying the changes, the drivers of the changes, and impacts on the land resources in different land use using GIS in combination of some statistical techniques. The first part of the work focused on the introduction and definition of the core concepts in relation to landscape changes. For examples, landscapes types and change drivers were treated. Description of some selected GIS softwares applicable for landscape studies, land use change models, their applications and comparisons were also discussed. Furthermore, the concept of space-time analysis in GIS, its theory and rationale were also addressed. The practical part of this thesis was based on four case studies which cut across different geographical regions and in different land use scenario. To achieve the objectives of this work, several materials and methods which are appropriate in relation to the current techniques developed for spatio-temporal analysis of landscape changes in various land use scenario were applied. These ranges from the materials used for data collection such as geospatial oriented instruments to the methods of data collection and analyses including the GIS, models, statistics, and multivariate analyses approaches. Each case study has specific objective which linked to the main aim(goal) of the study. The case study 1 (Onitsha - a growing urban hub centre in southeast, Nigeria) focused on evaluating change in land use and its effects on the landscape from 1987 to 2015. Increase in built-up areas because of rapid population growth which consequently led to acute deforestation and intensified agricultural activities was observed as the main driving forces of landscape changes in this case study. Regarding case study 2 (Jos, northern Nigeria landslide) which focused on identifying Jos landslide vulnerable areas, driving forces and effects on landscape; after analyses it was concluded human activities such as built-up was also a primary driver which induced other remote factors that prompted the landslide and producing landscape changes as final consequence. Case study 3 (Imo watershed), also revealed that the forest which recorded more than 40% decrease suffered more degradation from the driving forces - anthropogenic activities (such as agriculture, urbanization and deforestation). In this study, the impacts of land use change on other factors like soil erosion and soil features were also examined in relation to complementary effects on landscape. The final case study (Dřevnice River Basin, Czech Republic), also indicated that the forest area had substantial effect from the driving forces of change relative to other land use. Though, forest areas were observed to have shown decrease rates in all the case studies yet, this decline was lower in the case study 4 (Czech Republic) when compared with case studies 1, 2, and 3 (Nigeria). The reason for this could be because of differences in management and socio-economic circumstances. For instance, Czech Republic as a developed country is establishing more and better policies and practices geared towards enhancing nature conservation and sustainable environment relative to the developing country (Nigeria) where such polices are weak. The primary driving forces were almost relatively similar in all the case studies however, case study 4 showed marginal difference with higher number of identified driving forces. This might be attributed to the differences in geographical settings, socio-economics, and methods. For example, individually owned farmlands and distance from pipelines were not feasible in Nigeria scenarios.

Keywords

Land use-cover change models and drivers, GIS, predictive modelling, statistical analysis

Language used: English

Date on which the thesis was submitted / produced: 25. 8. 2018

Thesis defence

• Date of defence: 6. 9. 2018

PALACKÝ UNIVERSITY OLOMOUC

Faculty of Science

Doctoral programme / field:
Geography / Geoinformatics and Cartography