Analysis of Czech agricultural exports based on mirror statistics of Russian imports

Mgr. Sergey Yurik

Doctoral thesis

Abstract:

The Russian market is the largest market for agricultural products and foodstuffs (APF) goods among all European countries, including the Czech Republic. Therefore, a practical analysis of the condition, sales conditions and prices of goods exported to the Russian market is in demand and relevant for each country trading with Russia. Growing barriers to APF trading in the Russian market, especially the currently existing lists of mutual sanctions, including trade restrictions between the EU and Russia on APF, have significantly affected the volume and structure of mutual trade and continue to do so. Against this background, trade and trade policies require regular and comprehensive monitoring, including analysis using traditional tools and statistics, as well as the development of additional methods for identifying and studying emerging problems. Traditionally, a country's export analysis is based on national statistics. However, the analysis of the same flow based on mirror statistics of the host country in the form of its import is of undoubted practical interest. In general, the mirror statistics are closer to the real conditions of the sales market, since it fixes the cost and quantity of goods for sale on the domestic market of the importing country. The purpose of the work is to study the possibilities of mirror statistics of Russian imports to analyze and identify problems of Czech APF exports to the Russian market. To achieve the goal, three subtopics are analyzed. The first subtopic considers mirror statistics as an additional source of information and proves the possibility of using statistics on Russian APF imports in terms of methodological standards. The second subtopic proposes methods of aggregation and disaggregation of FT- indices to further analyze the dynamics of the most important groups of goods and explore the possibilities of recovery and expansion of APF exports. The third sub-topic presents the results of a quantitative analysis of APF supplies to the Russian market using mirror statistics of Russian imports and FT indices. The study was conducted using benchmarking where in addition to the Czech Republic other V4 countries (Poland, Slovakia and Hungary) were included as a focus group for which the level of trade recovery was compared (achieving pre-crisis trade volumes in 2012- 2013) and a leader was identified. The identified leader was the Czech Republic which was the only one among other V4 countries reached the level of pre-crisis APF trading in the Russian market. Then for the Czech Republic APF supplies were analyzed using mirror statistics of Russian imports. The analysis was carried out for the groups of the most important commodities and the top three commodities of trade leaders for which recommendations for the development of trade were formulated. For Czech beer as the leader of trade the problem of re-export not observed by Czech statistics was identified and analyzed. Based on this analysis the proposals to expand the export of Czech beer taking into account the factor of intellectual property were formulated.

Keywords

foreign trade, agricultural products and foodstuffs, mirror statistics, foreign trade indices, comparative advantages, international trade

Language used: English

Date on which the thesis was submitted / produced: 10. 2. 2023

Thesis defence

• Supervisor: prof. Ing. Luboš Smutka, Ph.D.
• Reader: Mansoor Maitah, Ph.D. Ph.D., prof. Ing., Artan Qineti, externi, Jaroslav Halík, externi

Czech University of Life Sciences Prague

Faculty of Economics and Management

Doctoral programme / field:
Economics and Management / Sector Economics and Economics of Enterprise