Social inequalities in heat-related mortality

Chloé Vésier

Master's thesis

Abstract:

Because of climate change, summer temperatures are predicted to rise and heat waves to be more recurrent, including in Central Europe. It is important to understand heat-related risks on human mortality and to identify inequalities in vulnerability among the population, such as sex and gender inequalities. In this study, the associations between daily temperature and mortality during the five warmest months of the year (from May to September) have been analysed in the Czech Republic for the period 1995–2019. The primary focus of the analysis was on the differences in the associations by sex, i.e., between men and women. These two categories were further divided by age, marital status, residence’s location and cause of death. Mortality time series have been modelled by a quasi-Poisson regression model with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to account for the delayed and non-linear effects of temperature on mortality. The heat-related mortality risks obtained in each population group were expressed in terms of risk at the 99th percentile of summer temperature relative to the minimum mortality temperature. The results showed that women were more at risk to die because of heat than men. With regard to age, the highest risk for men was observed between 75 to 84 years old, while risk for women was higher for women above 85 years old. Risks among married people were lower than risks among single, divorced and widowed people, and risks in divorced women were significantly higher than in divorced men. Results on residence’s location revealed a significantly higher risk for women living in the capital city Prague than in the regions, while among men, the mortality risk was slightly higher for those living in the regions. Ultimately, deaths by cardiovascular or respiratory diseases were found more sensitive to heat than other causes of death. Thus, this study showed that social and demographic criteria impacted the heat vulnerability and in particular, results highlighted the important role of sex and gender inequalities in heat-related mortality. Deeper studies on these social drivers would be relevant to design efficient and fair mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Keywords

DLNM, sex and gender inequalities, heat-stress

Language used: English

Date on which the thesis was submitted / produced: 31. 3. 2022

Thesis defence

• Supervisor: Mgr. Aleš Urban, Ph.D.

Czech University of Life Sciences Prague

Faculty of Environmental Sciences

Master programme:
Environmental Modelling