Russian geopolitical interests in Eastern Ukraine and scenarios of future development

Daniel Hänninen

Master's thesis

Abstract:

The thesis analyzes Russia’s short and long-term geopolitical interests on the territory of Eastern Ukraine and examines what sort of actions Russia is conducting in order to secure the aforementioned interests. The goal is to confirm whether Russia’s highly important goal is to keep Ukraine under its influence zone and that given the current Ukrainian course for democratization and westernization, Russia is also actively trying to destabilize the Ukrainian state with a long-term goal of Ukraine becoming a failed state that could be easily incorporated under the control of Moscow.In the theoretical part of the thesis there will be an analysis of the theories of realism, eurasianism and nationalism and how these theories can be used in the research on the Ukrainian crisis. In this research there will be an analysis on the Russian strategic interests regarding the conflict area on the territory of Eastern Ukraine. The research will be qualitative, going through several types of values the region potentially could benefit to the current Russian long-term geopolitical interests.In the last section of the thesis there will be a scenario analysis on several possible future development predictions and a result of which outcome would be the most likely to happen.

Abstract:

The thesis analyzes Russia’s short and long-term geopolitical interests on the territory of Eastern Ukraine and examines what sort of actions Russia is conducting in order to secure the aforementioned interests. The goal is to confirm whether Russia’s highly important goal is to keep Ukraine under its influence zone and that given the current Ukrainian course for democratization and westernization, Russia is also actively trying to destabilize the Ukrainian state with a long-term goal of Ukraine becoming a failed state that could be easily incorporated under the control of Moscow.In the theoretical part of the thesis there will be an analysis of the theories of realism, eurasianism and nationalism and how these theories can be used in the research on the Ukrainian crisis. In this research there will be an analysis on the Russian strategic interests regarding the conflict area on the territory of Eastern Ukraine. The research will be qualitative, going through several types of values the region potentially could benefit to the current Russian long-term geopolitical interests.In the last section of the thesis there will be a scenario analysis on several possible future development predictions and a result of which outcome would be the most likely to happen.

Keywords

Geopolitics, Strategy, Ukraine, Conflict, Donbass, Russia

Keywords

Geopolitics, Ukraine, Strategy, Conflict, Donbass, Russia

Language used: English

Date on which the thesis was submitted / produced: 29. 6. 2018

Thesis defence

• Date of defence: 29. 5. 2019
• Supervisor: Jan Martin Rolenc
• Reader: Miloslav Machoň

Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze

Master programme / field:
Mezinárodní ekonomické vztahy / International and Diplomatic Studies