International Agricultural Trade of wheat: Case Study of the United States of America

Bc. Kamil Maitah

Diplomová práce

Abstract:

The diploma thesis is divided into two main parts, theoretical and practical. The first part describes wheat and its uses. Moreover, it characterizes the wheat market in terms of international trade. The wheat foreign trade development and its impact on U.S. wheat export have been explored. The second part is analytically oriented, for that, a linear regression analysis has been conducted using the ordinary least squares method to analyse dependency between U.S. wheat export and selected macroeconomic indicators within the years 1995–2016. The econometric model has examined the relationship between U.S. wheat export and U.S. wheat production, U.S. wheat price, U.S. export promotion (MAP, FMD programs), value of U.S. dollar (U.S. dollar index), competing country wheat price (Canada), and wheat importing country GDP (Japan). The export of U.S. wheat is impacted by 74% by changes in the chosen variables. It means that significant variables were contained in the model, both statistically and economically. The estimated model reports which factors significantly affect the export of U.S. wheat. It reveals that the export is largely affected by the changes in the production, price and export promotion. For instance, if the price of U.S. wheat increases by 1 dollar, the export of U.S. wheat will decrease by 58 thousand metric tons per year. By contrast, if U.S. export promotion increases by 1 million dollars, the export of U.S. wheat will increase by 55 thousand metric tons per year. This underlines the significance of the programs supporting export. Based on this model, the forecast of U.S. wheat export for the next four years is derived (2017–2020). It predicts that the export of U.S. wheat will increase in the following years except 2017. The export is projected at 34,302 thousand metric tons in 2019. That would be the largest exported quantity since 2010. Moreover, if the forecast holds, it is expected that the U.S. will regain its position as the world’s largest wheat exporter.

Keywords

Agriculture, Wheat, U.S., International trade, Foreign trade

Jazyk práce: angličtina

Datum vytvoření / odevzdání či podání práce: 21. 3. 2018

Obhajoba závěrečné práce

• Vedoucí: Ing. Jiří Mach, Ph.D.

Česká zemědělská univerzita v Praze

Provozně ekonomická fakulta

Magisterský studijní program / obor:
Economics and Management / Economics and Management