Economic analysis of the Macedonian denar (MKD)

Sunchitsa Gerasimova, BBA

Master's thesis

Abstract:

The purpose of this thesis was to identify and evaluate the key factors that influence the movement of the Macedonian denar. Additionally, the paper sought to provide an insight into the historical occurrences that shaped the denar as is it today, compare it to its neighboring currencies and provide a short-term forecast for a period of six months. The research was conducted with the assistance of three methodological tools: technical, fundamental and regression analysis. Technical analysis was efficient in identifying trends, patterns, support and resistance levels that confirmed that over time, the market trends to provide a consistent reaction to similar stimuli. Fundamental analysis was effective in detecting specific macroeconomic and political factors and clarified the underlying reasons behind trends in the exchange rate. Regression analysis was used to construct an econometric model for seven economic variables for the time period January 2002 - July 2015. The model was tested for significance and its credibility was confirmed. A forecast scenario was designed for the period August 2015 - January 2016. The forecast was accurate for the first three months but a mean percentage error of 2.8825 was the cause for deviation between the forecasted and the actual (real) data in the remaining three months.

Keywords

Macedonian denar, US dollar, economy, exchange rate, forex, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, regression analysis, evaluation, forecasting

Language used: English

Date on which the thesis was submitted / produced: 23. 3. 2016

Thesis defence

• Supervisor: Ing. Petr Procházka, MSc Ph.D.

Czech University of Life Sciences Prague

Faculty of Economics and Management

Master programme / field:
Economics and Management / Economics and Management