Forecasting výdajů na zbrojení (Ekonomie obranného průmyslu)

Filip Nepimach

Master's thesis

Military expenditure forecasting methods (Economics of European defense industry)

Abstract:

Tato diplomová práce porovnává dvě metody forecastingu válečného zbrojení a to Cobb-Douglas-Sollow funkci a autoregresivní ekonometrickou metodu. Metody jsou porovnávány na stejném období a technika s nižší odchylkou je použita na předpověď výdajů na zbrojení mezi lety 2015-2024. Dále jsou porovnávány předpovědi výdajů států Evropy a USA. Konečně jsou aplikovány testy pro zjištění Granger kauzality mezi těmito proměnnými.

Abstract:

This dissertation firstly examines literature connected to this topic in chapter 2. Secondly, chapter 3 summarizes necessary methodology and data used throughout the dissertation. Thirdly, it compares the results of military expenditure made by Cobb-Douglas-Solow production function forecast and an Auto regressive model, in chapter 4. Fourthly, in the chapter 5, with a better performing model, it forecasters the military expenditure from 2015 to 2024 for France, Germany, UK and Italy, because they represent more than 65% of European military expenditure and should give us an idea about the course of the European expenditure as a whole. Also, it compares forecasted expenditure of European NATO countries and USA with Canada for the same period. Finally, in chapter 6, we examine whether there is Granger causality between MS and GDP. Simply, if MS Granger causes GDP and vice versa. It was found that AR is a better performing forecasting technique than CDS and that Granger causality results are ambiguous. GDP Granger causes MS only for France and Italy and there is no evidence of opposite causality.

Keywords

válečné zbrojení, Granger kauzalita, forecasting

Keywords

military expenditure, Granger causality, forecasting

Language used: Czech

Date on which the thesis was submitted / produced: 21. 7. 2015

Thesis defence

• Date of defence: 11. 1. 2016
• Supervisor: Anna Klosová
• Reader: Daniel Fiott

Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze

Master programme:
Economics of Globalisation and European Integration