CLIMATIC DYNAMICS AND ITS IMPACT ON FOOD SECURITY AND LIVELIHOOD IN NORTHERN KADUNA, KADUNA STATE, FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA

B.Sc. Oluwatobiloba Elijah Adu, BSc

Master's thesis

Abstract:

Cereal crops account for two-thirds of the global human caloric intake thus accounting for the highest crop production in the world. Climate change is a cumbersome topic of discussion in the 21st which already has an adverse effect on the rainfall patterns globally thus posing a threat to the global food production through disturbances of temperature and precipitation, thus posing socio-economic threat to rural farmers. Trends data on temperature, rainfall and yield of 3 cereal crops (Maize, Sorghum & Rice) in Kaduna, Northern Nigeria was used for a period of 23years (1999-2021). The yield data was obtained from Michigan State University, Kaduna State Agricultural Production data in the USAID development data library while climatic data was obtained from the archive of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency. The primary objective of this research was to investigate the vulnerability of climate change impacts on Kaduna crop yields, land use, production and environmental variables to adaptations in crops requirements through empirical analysis to shed more light on these factors as literatures on this region are scanty. The time series data was tested for stationarity using the Cointegrating Regression Durbin-Watson (CRDW) test method as expounded by Gujarati 2003. Multiple linear regression was then carried out to determine the relationships between climatic variables and crops yield. Analysis of the result showed that mean yield of the three crops in descending order are as follows Sorghum < Rice < Maize. However the descending order of the mean cropping area can be ranked as Rice < Sorghum < Maize and the production output in descending order was as follows as Rice < Sorghum < Maize. The minimum temperature had a statistically significant positive impact on the yield of the three crops. However, increased temperature at maximum level resulted in the declination of Rice. Rainfall also showed a negative but not statistically significant impact on the cereals. Conclusively, this study discovered that climatic changes had occurred over the years which reflected in the variability of rainfall pattern as well as the minimum and maximum temperature over this time period. It also showed that minimum temperatures favored crop yield while increased temperature negatively affects it. The land use change images over the course of the time period of (2000 -2021) illustrated more afforestation practices in the region. It is important that climatic variables are carefully monitored to forecast changes and inform farmers accordingly. Farmers should also be given more education on climate change and supported to adopt climate smart agriculture.

Keywords

Afforestation, The great green wall, Climate change, Food security

Jazyk práce: English

Datum vytvoření / odevzdání či podání práce: 24. 4. 2023

Obhajoba závěrečné práce

• Vedúci: doc. Ing. Vladimír Krepl, CSc.
• Oponent: Abraham Kabutey, Ph.D.

Czech University of Life Sciences Prague

Faculty of Tropical AgriSciences

Master programme:
Agri-food Systems and Rural Development