Climate Change and Agricultural Production Trends in Nigeria

B.Sc. ABIODUN SEGUN OGUNDELE, BS

Bachelor's thesis

Abstract:

This study was conducted to investigate the effect of climatic variability on agricultural production in Nigeria over a period of two decades (1999 – 2018) using secondary data obtained from Food and Agriculture Organisation, World Bank and Central Bank of Nigeria. Climate data used include rainfall, average temperature, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature. Agricultural production data used include cassava yield, maize yield, chicken production and goats' production in Nigeria. Descriptive statistics, Mann-Kendall’s trend test, and Pearson correlation were used to analyse the data using Microsoft Excel and Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 26. The result revealed an insignificant decrease (R2 < 0.028, p=0.92) in annual rainfall. The result also revealed an increasing average temperature trend with Kendall’s tau value of 0.39. The minimum temperature also increased linearly with time. It varied from 20.710C to 21.710C averaging to 21.410C and statistical analysis reveals that the increase was statistically strong (R2>0.5) and significant (p<0.05) with Kendall’s tau value of 0.59. Significant positive association was recorded among average temperature and maize yield (0.474, p<0.05), goats' production (0.477, p<0.05), and chickens' production (0.613, p<0.01). This study concludes that increased temperature and decreased precipitation over time in Nigeria have significant effect on crop yields and livestock production. which are projected to increase under climate change and could directly threaten crop yields and livestock production. Hence, it is recommended that diversified coping and adaptation mechanisms should be undertaken and improved crop varieties and livestock breeds that can survive under changed climate conditions should be introduced to farmers.

Keywords

climate, rainfall, temperature, agriculture, yield, livestock

Language used: English

Date on which the thesis was submitted / produced: 22. 4. 2022

Thesis defence

• Supervisor: Ing. Ing. William Nkomoki, Ph.D.

Czech University of Life Sciences Prague

Faculty of Tropical AgriSciences

Bachelor programme / field:
Tropical Agriculture / International Cooperation in Agriculture and Rural Development