Projecting future drought in Europe: a homogenized dataset based on multi-model, multi-scenario climate projections and diverse PET methods

Lina Maria Gonzalez Osorio, BSc

Diplomová práce

Abstract:

Drought is a complex climate phenomenon influenced by both precipitation deficits and atmospheric evaporative. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is widely used for drought assessment because it integrates these two components. However, doubt in SPEI estimates arises from the choice of potential evapotranspiration (PET) method. This study evaluates how different PET methods influence drought characterization across Europe. SPEI was calculated using multiple PET methods for five global climate models under historical and future climate scenarios (historical, SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585) at four-time scales (1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-months. The analysis focused on changes in drought frequency, duration and severity were derived to evaluate differences across PET methods, climate models, and scenarios. Results indicates and overall increase in drought duration and severity under future climate scenarios, particularly SSP370 and SSP585. Differences among PET methos were relatively small under historical conditions but increased substantially in future projections. Methods estimating higher evaporative demand, such as Penman-Monteith, tend to reproduce stronger drought severity compared with simple temperature-based methods as Thornthwaite. These findings highlight the growing role of atmospheric evaporative demand in shaping drought characteristics and demonstrate that PET formulations represent an important source of uncertainty in drought assessment under climate change.

Keywords

Droughts, PET, SPEI, Climate Change

Jazyk práce: angličtina

Datum vytvoření / odevzdání či podání práce: 3. 4. 2026

Obhajoba závěrečné práce

• Obhajoba proběhla 19. 5. 2026
• Vedoucí: doc. Mgr. Ing. Ioannis Markonis, Ph.D.
• Oponent: Johanna Ruth Thomson, Dr. Ing.

Česká zemědělská univerzita v Praze

Fakulta životního prostředí

Magisterský studijní program:
Nature Conservation