Comparison of projection for selected European countries with focus on ageing and its effect on public expenditures for health and social care

Hande Göksu Dizman

Master's thesis

COMPARISON OF PROJECTION FOR SELECTED EUROPEAN COUNTRIES WITH FOCUS ON AGEING AND ITS EFFECT ON PUBLIC EXPENDITURES FOR HEALTH CARE AND SOCIAL CARE

Abstract:

In the past century, fertility rates and mortality rates in the world have been decreasing. On the other hand, life expectancy has been going up. These results ageing in the populations. Ageing creates a challenge to public financing of health and social care. This paper compares the current demographic trends in Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, aims to project their populations until the age 2050, compare the findings and analyse ageing effect on public expenditures in these countries. In this paper, it has been concluded that scope countries face ageing in their population for a long time, moreover it has been found that the ageing would continue until 2050. Although the scoped countries have ageing in their populations, it has not been found clear effects on public expenditures in terms of health, pension, and education. Even though the financial effects are not crystal clear in the government expenditure side, it is observed of an increasing in the spendings for older generations. There should be taken various precautions to prevent ageing in the society and its financial effects. Therefore, in the last part of this thesis, pension reforms and migration are discussed as solution.

Abstract:

In the past century, fertility rates and mortality rates in the world have been decreasing. On the other hand, life expectancy has been going up. These results ageing in the populations. Ageing creates a challenge to public financing of health and social care. This paper compares the current demographic trends in Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, aims to project their populations until the age 2050, compare the findings and analyse ageing effect on public expenditures in these countries. In this paper, it has been concluded that scope countries face ageing in their population for a long time, moreover it has been found that the ageing would continue until 2050. Although the scoped countries have ageing in their populations, it has not been found clear effects on public expenditures in terms of health, pension, and education. Even though the financial effects are not crystal clear in the government expenditure side, it is observed of an increasing in the spendings for older generations. There should be taken various precautions to prevent ageing in the society and its financial effects. Therefore, in the last part of this thesis, pension reforms and migration are discussed as solution.

Keywords

Comparison, migration, Data Analysis, pension, mortality, Demography, European Union Countries, Excel, fertility, government expenditure, health, projections, Population pyramids, social care, Cohort Method

Keywords

Data Analysis, European Union Countries, Excel, fertility, health, Cohort Method, pension, Population pyramids, social care, migration, mortality, Demography, Comparison, government expenditure, projections

Language used: English

Date on which the thesis was submitted / produced: 30. 4. 2023

Thesis defence

• Date of defence: 5. 6. 2023
• Supervisor: Martina Miskolczi
• Reader: Filip Hon

Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze

Master programme / field:
Economic Data Analysis / Data Analysis and Modeling