Climate Change: Farmer Perception and Adaptation Strategies and its Impacts on Agriculture in District Nagar, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan

Yousuf ALI, BA (Hons)

Master's thesis

Community perception of the impact of climate change on agriculture and their coping strategies

Abstract:

Like any other developing country, Pakistan is confronting climate-induced hazards, but the intensity and severity of these hazards are high and threaten the residents of the higher mountainous regions of Pakistan, such as District Nagar, Gilgit-Baltistan. The primary objective of this study is to understand farmers' perception of climate change, adaptation strategies, and its impact on agriculture production in district Nagar; for this study, a mixed research approach was adopted to collect data from respondents. Quantitative data were obtained from 204 farmers of Rakaposhi and Phaker Valley by simple random sampling, while qualitative data was obtained from key informants and focus group discussions. Percentage analysis, Trend analysis, Chi-square distribution, and Logistic regression are used to analyze the data. The result of this study shows that climate change impacts agricultural productivity adversely, as most farmers claimed that due to climate-induced hazards, they are suffering from numerous negative consequences such as loss of soil fertility, crops infestation diseases, water shortage, and premature repining of crops, which eventually reduce the agriculture production in district Nagar. The study also revealed that the farmers of district Nagar perceived the symptoms of climate change such as increase in temperature, change in precipitation, erratic rainfall, Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), and glaciers melting, and farmers associated these changes with abrupt climate change. Moreover, the study further revealed that crop diversification, changing planting dates, shifting to horticulture, crop rotation, and moving to non-farm activities are prominent adaptation measures through which farmers mitigate the impact of climate change.

Abstract:

Like any other developing country, Pakistan is confronting climate-induced hazards, but the intensity and severity of these hazards are high and threaten the residents of the higher mountainous regions of Pakistan, such as District Nagar, Gilgit-Baltistan. The primary objective of this study is to understand farmers' perception of climate change, adaptation strategies, and its impact on agriculture production in district Nagar; for this study, a mixed research approach was adopted to collect data from respondents. Quantitative data were obtained from 204 farmers of Rakaposhi and Phaker Valley by simple random sampling, while qualitative data was obtained from key informants and focus group discussions. Percentage analysis, Trend analysis, Chi-square distribution, and Logistic regression are used to analyze the data. The result of this study shows that climate change impacts agricultural productivity adversely, as most farmers claimed that due to climate-induced hazards, they are suffering from numerous negative consequences such as loss of soil fertility, crops infestation diseases, water shortage, and premature repining of crops, which eventually reduce the agriculture production in district Nagar. The study also revealed that the farmers of district Nagar perceived the symptoms of climate change such as increase in temperature, change in precipitation, erratic rainfall, Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), and glaciers melting, and farmers associated these changes with abrupt climate change. Moreover, the study further revealed that crop diversification, changing planting dates, shifting to horticulture, crop rotation, and moving to non-farm activities are prominent adaptation measures through which farmers mitigate the impact of climate change.

Keywords

Keywords, Climate change, Perception, Adaptation strategies, Barriers of adaptation, Gilgit-Baltistan

Language used: Czech

Date on which the thesis was submitted / produced: 31. 5. 2023

Thesis defence

• Supervisor: prof. Maria Sassi

Palacký University Olomouc

Faculty of Science

Master programme / field:
Global Development Policy / Global Development Policy