Estimated Effects of Brexit on UK Fiscal Performance

Wen Zhang

Master's thesis

Abstract:

Because of the black swan events happened on 2016 which is the United King voted to exit the European Union, many aspects of political and economic life would be affected. One of those would be the UK’s public finances which happen in a direct way. At the same time here are also a lot of negotiations to discuss which path they chose would be the win-win pattern for the UK and EU. In this paper, I consider both the possible direct and indirect consequences of a brexit for the UK’s public finances and the fiscal performance. My objective of this thesis is to provide the analysis of brexit consequences with the main focus on evaluating the effects on UK public finance. I look at the direct effects for the different aspects like economic, movement of people, investment from outside and the budget contribution to EU. Those fours factors are not only mainly factors for UK's future development but also will influence the EU even whole world economic reaction. I use some considerable literature and results from modelling the possible economic consequences of leaving the EU. So I list some choices also the possible scenarios which are post- brexit main originations play an important role in international business and UK's probably decisions. Were they to leave the EU and not join the European Economic Area (EEA) or similar arrangement, these effects are fairly clear. I list some possible economy models to analysis the pros and cons, comparing with the most credible independent economic forecasts to look at these possible models and public finance outcomes. The market's focus on brexit is mainly in the short term; but from a long-term perspective, the European Union, the European relations, the world economy, global financial markets and the future development prospect of EU's economic and financial have brought the influence of different level because it a world wise decision . So the conclusion for this brexit decision and my personal opinion that I figure out for the majority of businesses in Britain the possibility the UK might leave the European Union –Brexit –is a major source of concern. Both the break with the EU and the uncertainty associated with it would be bad for business and damaging to the UK economy. A great deal has now been written on the economic consequences for the UK of Brexit. Some of this is impartial; much of it is partisan. The heart of this paper are the analysis and the different channels of impact. For each I consider in turn the impact on the UK and on the rest of the EU. In conclude that while the biggest impact of brexit would be on the UK, there can be little doubt that there will also be a significant impact on the rest of the EU.

Abstract:

Because of the black swan events happened on 2016 which is the United King voted to exit the European Union, many aspects of political and economic life would be affected. One of those would be the UK’s public finances which happen in a direct way. At the same time here are also a lot of negotiations to discuss which path they chose would be the win-win pattern for the UK and EU. In this paper, I consider both the possible direct and indirect consequences of a brexit for the UK’s public finances and the fiscal performance. My objective of this thesis is to provide the analysis of brexit consequences with the main focus on evaluating the effects on UK public finance. I look at the direct effects for the different aspects like economic, movement of people, investment from outside and the budget contribution to EU. Those fours factors are not only mainly factors for UK's future development but also will influence the EU even whole world economic reaction. I use some considerable literature and results from modelling the possible economic consequences of leaving the EU. So I list some choices also the possible scenarios which are post- brexit main originations play an important role in international business and UK's probably decisions. Were they to leave the EU and not join the European Economic Area (EEA) or similar arrangement, these effects are fairly clear. I list some possible economy models to analysis the pros and cons, comparing with the most credible independent economic forecasts to look at these possible models and public finance outcomes. The market's focus on brexit is mainly in the short term; but from a long-term perspective, the European Union, the European relations, the world economy, global financial markets and the future development prospect of EU's economic and financial have brought the influence of different level because it a world wise decision . So the conclusion for this brexit decision and my personal opinion that I figure out for the majority of businesses in Britain the possibility the UK might leave the European Union –Brexit –is a major source of concern. Both the break with the EU and the uncertainty associated with it would be bad for business and damaging to the UK economy. A great deal has now been written on the economic consequences for the UK of Brexit. Some of this is impartial; much of it is partisan. The heart of this paper are the analysis and the different channels of impact. For each I consider in turn the impact on the UK and on the rest of the EU. In conclude that while the biggest impact of brexit would be on the UK, there can be little doubt that there will also be a significant impact on the rest of the EU.

Keywords

Brexit；Fiscal, Performance；Economic, Impacts；Alternative, Economy, Models；Public, Finance.

Keywords

Brexit；Fiscal, Performance；Economic, Impacts；Alternative, Economy, Models；Public, Finance.

Language used: English

Date on which the thesis was submitted / produced: 27. 4. 2018

Thesis defence

• Date of defence: 30. 5. 2018
• Supervisor: Tomáš Wroblowský
• Reader: Aleš Melecký

VŠB - Technical University of Ostrava

Ekonomická fakulta

Master programme / field:
Hospodářská politika a správa / Finance