Analysis of crude oil commodity in Iran

Mahsa Asadieydivand, M.Sc.

Diplomová práce

Abstract:

This thesis analysed the impact of oil export revenue on Iran's GDP and external debt, as well as the role of sanctions in this relationship. Quantitative methodologies, including multivariate regression analysis, Vector Autoregression (VAR), and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), were used to examine the dynamic interactions between the variables. Time-series analysis was also conducted to investigate the trends and patterns in Iran's oil export revenue, GDP, and external debt. Qualitative methodologies, including a literature review was used to explore the political and economic implications of sanctions on Iran's oil export revenue, GDP, and external debt. Data was collected from various sources, such as the Central Bank of Iran, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The findings indicated that there is a significant positive relationship between Iran's oil export revenue and GDP in the long run. However, this relationship is weaker in the short run, indicating that shocks to the system can have an impact on the relationship. Additionally, the analysis showed that external debt has a negative impact on Iran's GDP. The role of sanctions in the relationship between oil export revenue, GDP, and external debt was also examined, revealing that sanctions have a significant negative impact on Iran's economy. Impulse Response Function (IRF) analysis showed that the impact of a shock to oil export revenue on GDP decreases over time, indicating that the Iranian economy has some degree of resilience to oil shocks. Overall, this thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of the economic challenges facing Iran, specifically regarding oil export revenue, GDP, and external debt.

Keywords

regression analysis, oil export, GDP, Vector Autoregressive Model

Jazyk práce: angličtina

Datum vytvoření / odevzdání či podání práce: 4. 4. 2023

Obhajoba závěrečné práce

• Obhajoba proběhla 24. 5. 2023
• Vedoucí: doc. Ing. Petr Procházka, MSc Ph.D.
• Oponent: Vladimír Hönig, externi

Česká zemědělská univerzita v Praze

Provozně ekonomická fakulta

Magisterský studijní program / obor:
Systems Engineering and Informatics / Informatics