Měnová krize v ČR v roce 1997 a Crawling Peg jako nástroj jak předejít měnové krizi

Ondřej Brojír

Diplomová práce

Monetary crise in CR in 1997 and Crawling Peg as instrument how avoid monetary crise

Anotace:

The main aim of this work is to describe some of the processes in the Czech economy that preceded the monetary crisis in May 1997. The Czech Republic belongs to so called ?emerging markets? and in the 1990s it has to undergo a painful process of economic transformation. This process was based (among other things) on liberalization of capital movements. Strong capital inflow (and following outflow) caused great imbalances which led to the mentioned ?monetary shake? in 1997. This work comprises a short description of the crisis and short periods before and after it. The focus of this work lies in analysis of the processes before the crisis. We analyze the issues of the exchange rate regimes and strong capital inflow under the fixed exchange rate. This combination is in a way problematic, because it rules out the domestic monetary policy. The monetary policy then becomes inefficient and dependent on the pressure of the markets. Fixed nominal exchange rate and strong real appreciation cause also do not help this situation, but quite on the contrary. In the first part of the work we discuss currency crises and their indicators. Then we deal with the role of the central bank and its instruments, which can be used to prevent or solve a crisis. Last chapter of the first part contains short description of the crisis in the Czech Republic in 1997 and causes of monetary crisis. The second part focuses on possible causes of the crisis, mainly strong capital inflow and real appreciation under fixed nominal exchange rate. We discuss an alternative exchange rate regime ? crawling peg ? in domestic conditions. Then I represent possible progress in czech economy and this progress confront with progress in Poland and Hungary.

Klíčová slova

Monetary Policy, Currency Crises, Exchange Rates Regimes, Crawling Peg, Czech Republic

Jazyk práce: čeština

Datum vytvoření / odevzdání či podání práce: 7. 6. 2006

Obhajoba závěrečné práce

• Obhajoba proběhla 30. 11. 2005
• Vedoucí: Josef Jílek

Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze

Magisterský studijní program / obor:
Hospodářská politika a správa / Národní hospodářství