Gold price prediction and factors influencing investment in this commodity

Arjun Mohan

Master's thesis

Abstract:

This thesis investigates the future trend of gold prices over a four-year horizon and evaluates factors influencing gold investment over the past five years. It examines the dependency of GDP growth and inflation rates on gold price movements in India, using Liner regression and Correlation analysis. The study aims was to provide valuable insights for students and investors by predicting the values of these factors, thereby aiding strategic decisions on future commodity sales and purchases. However, Gold prices are also influenced by market speculation and investor sentiment, which can be highly volatile and influenced by a wide range of factors, including media reports, political events, and market rumours. These psychological and speculative factors are challenging to quantify and incorporate into predictive models based solely on historical data.

Keywords

Gold, price, prediction, influencing factors, investment

Language used: English

Date on which the thesis was submitted / produced: 27. 5. 2024

Thesis defence

• Date of defence: 10. 6. 2024
• Supervisor: prof. Ing. Marek Vochozka, MBA
• Reader: Ing. Ján Oros

Institute of Technology and Business in České Budějovice

Master programme / field:
Business Administration / Business Administration