Transferring UAVs to Russia: Navigating Strategic Implications for Iran

Alda ANINDEA

Master's thesis

Transferring UAVs to Russia: Navigating the Strategic Implications for Iran

Abstract:

For a country that has been living under a variety of international sanctions that have crippled the national economy, Iran continues to develop its indigenous armaments in the field of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or drones. Over the years, the Iranian military has successfully achieved self-sufficiency in drone production, a major driving factor that enables Tehran to supply drones to its proxies in the Middle East and export these weapons beyond the region. Recent concern over Iran's drone proliferation was specifically turned into the spotlight due to them supplying drones to Russian forces to attack Ukraine. Against this backdrop, this thesis aims to understand the strategic interests of Iran in supplying UAVs to Russia in the war against Ukraine. In order to conduct the analysis, primary data was collected from statements and press releases from government officials and international institutions. Meanwhile, secondary data was derived from academic literature, reports from think tanks, and news articles. Through the framework of the security dilemma and conventional deterrence applied in this research, it was found that the partnership with Russia proved to bring several strategic advantages for Iran. As a country that considers military technology to be capable of providing national security, the findings of this thesis revealed that Iran had acquired military procurements from Russia to modernise its air fleet in exchange for its drones. Furthermore, the findings also showed that UAVs serve as part of Iran's deterrent strategy in three main components. First, the visibility of the Iranian military force in increasing its power projection beyond the region. Second, the willingness to use force with political deniability which enables Iran to deny direct involvement and responsibility for its actions. Lastly, the rationality of the use of force caters for financial streams towards Iran and increases its bargaining power as a growing drone exporter.

Abstract:

For a country that has been living under a variety of international sanctions that have crippled the national economy, Iran continues to develop its indigenous armaments in the field of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or drones. Over the years, the Iranian military has successfully achieved self-sufficiency in drone production, a major driving factor that enables Tehran to supply drones to its proxies in the Middle East and export these weapons beyond the region. Recent concern over Iran's drone proliferation was specifically turned into the spotlight due to them supplying drones to Russian forces to attack Ukraine. Against this backdrop, this thesis aims to understand the strategic interests of Iran in supplying UAVs to Russia in the war against Ukraine. In order to conduct the analysis, primary data was collected from statements and press releases from government officials and international institutions. Meanwhile, secondary data was derived from academic literature, reports from think tanks, and news articles. Through the framework of the security dilemma and conventional deterrence applied in this research, it was found that the partnership with Russia proved to bring several strategic advantages for Iran. As a country that considers military technology to be capable of providing national security, the findings of this thesis revealed that Iran had acquired military procurements from Russia to modernise its air fleet in exchange for its drones. Furthermore, the findings also showed that UAVs serve as part of Iran's deterrent strategy in three main components. First, the visibility of the Iranian military force in increasing its power projection beyond the region. Second, the willingness to use force with political deniability which enables Iran to deny direct involvement and responsibility for its actions. Lastly, the rationality of the use of force caters for financial streams towards Iran and increases its bargaining power as a growing drone exporter.

Keywords

Iran, drone proliferation, Russia-Ukraine war, security dilemma, conventional deterrence

Language used: English

Date on which the thesis was submitted / produced: 23. 7. 2024

Thesis defence

• Supervisor: Gökhan Bacik, Ph.D.

Palacký University Olomouc

Faculty of Arts

Master programme / field:
Humanities / Euroculture