Exploring the nexus: Climate change, food security and migration dynamics among smallholder farmers in Nepal

Ing. Giri Prasad Kandel, MSc.

Doctoral thesis

Abstract:

Climate change significantly threatens agriculture and food security, especially for smallholder farmers in developing countries like Nepal. Adverse effects, including changing weather patterns and extreme events such as droughts, landslides, and floods, lead to increased vulnerability, food insecurity, and migration. Despite efforts to implement various climate change adaptation strategies, their effectiveness among smallholder farmers remains limited. This dissertation explores the complex linkages between climate change, adaptation strategies, food security and migration in Nepal. It uses a quantitative survey to collect data from 400 smallholder farmers in three agro-ecological zones of Nepal, conducted from March 2021 to June 2021, focusing on smallholder farmers. First, it examines the influence of agro-ecological zones, social groups, and socio-economic factors on the adoption of climate change adaptation strategies, combining the “Action Theory of Adaptation” and the “Intersectionality Framework” and utilizing advanced analytical models such as the Multivariate Probit Model. Second, the study assesses food security status in response to climate extremes, particularly drought, and evaluates the impact of adaptation strategies. It employs two theoretical frameworks, the FAO Food Security Indicators, and the IPCC Vulnerability Dimensions. An ordered logit model is used to explore the complex dynamics of climate change and food security. Finally, the study examines rural migration in the context of climate change and its impact on food security status, incorporating the “Push-Pull theory” and the “Neo-Economics of Labour Migration”. It employs binary probit, propensity score matching, and endogenous switching regression to understand food security dynamics and migration dynamics better. The findings demonstrate the positive impact of adopting climate change adaptation strategies for smallholder farmers facing climate challenges. However, marginalized groups, like those in the Mountain region and Sudra groups, face barriers to adoption due to limited adaptive capacity, leading them to engage in off-farm activities and temporary migration to cope with climate impacts and improve their livelihoods. Climate extremes, particularly droughts, negatively impact food security, but adopting climate change adaptation strategies effectively improves the food security status of smallholder farmers. Rural out-migration has a dual impact on food security, with remittances crucial for increasing household income and food security, but the reduction in the agricultural labour force poses a long-term challenge. We propose empowering disadvantaged farmers by disseminating information on climate change adaptation. To sustain agricultural production, the government should provide subsidies and easy access to credit, especially for disadvantaged Mountain, Hill, and Sudra farmers, possibly through microfinance. Promoting small-scale irrigation, early maturing crops, new crop varieties, and crop-specific weather information will improve climate adaptation and agricultural resilience for sustainable food security. Tailored adaptation strategies for each agro-ecological zone are essential, prioritizing smallholder farmers through technology, credit, and subsidies to prevent long-term land abandonment and excessive migration. Collaboration between governments, NGOs, and stakeholders is essential to address interlinked challenges and ensure smallholder farmers resilience to climate impacts.

Keywords

Multivariate probit model, Migration, Climate change adaptation strategies, Sustainable Development, Agroecological zones, Social groups, Food consumption score, Reduced coping strategies index, Endogenous switching regression

Language used: English

Date on which the thesis was submitted / produced: 12. 4. 2024

Thesis defence

• Supervisor: doc. Ing. Miroslava Bavorová, Ph.D.
• Reader: Jindřich Špička, Ph.D., prof. Ing., Prajal Pradhan, externi, Anu Susan Sam, externi

Czech University of Life Sciences Prague

Faculty of Tropical AgriSciences

Doctoral programme:
Sustainable Rural Development