Geopolitics and Trade Relations in Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership and Opportunities for EU

Mubina Toirova, Ph.D.

Master's thesis

Abstract:

The nations have been involved in the establishment of the mega-regional trade deals, since 2018. The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is the first mega-regional trade agreement established between Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, New Zealand, Singapore, and Vietnam. In this research, the total bilateral export flows of the CPTPP members have been analyzed with the constructed gravity model based on a balanced panel dataset of 11 CPTPP countries between 2001 and 2020. The degree of influence of the distance between members, common border, common language, and CPTPP membership has been evaluated. The parameters’ estimations have been performed by three methods: Simple Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), OLS with exporter and importer time-varying fixed effects, and Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML). Since the PPML method was found as the most well-performed method, it has been applied in further regression analysis of the disaggregated by industry bilateral exports of CPTPP countries. It was found that the distance and common border have a significant negative effect on bilateral exports both on total and disaggregated levels. The common language and the CPTPP membership do not have a significant effect on bilateral exports on the total level. However, the disaggregation by industries bilateral export analysis allowed capturing the significance of the common language and the CPTPP membership for selected industries. In addition, the revealed comparative advantage analysis of selected industries has been conducted to identify the opportunities both for CPTPP countries and EU members.

Keywords

Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, Mega-Regional Trade Agreement, Ordinary Least Squares, Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood, Revealed Comparative Advantage, Gravity Model

Jazyk práce: English

Datum vytvoření / odevzdání či podání práce: 31. 3. 2022

Obhajoba závěrečné práce

• Vedúci: Ing. Lenka Rumánková, Ph.D.

Czech University of Life Sciences Prague

Faculty of Economics and Management

Master programme / odbor:
Economics and Management / Economics and Management