The flaws of the political opposition in Venezuela in changing the regime of Nicolás Maduro (2014-2020)

Michelle Stephanie Salguero Marquez

Bachelor's thesis

Abstract:

The study aims to explore how the organization and strategies of the opposition in Venezuela, in interaction with the government's responses, lead to their failure to change the regime. The research question is: how has the interaction between the political opposition in Venezuela and the incumbent government impacted the opposition’s chances of changing Nicolás Maduro’s regime (2014-2020)? The study uses a hybrid approach that combines two types of process tracing methods, theory-testing and explaining outcome, and analyzes the opposition strategies and contextual elements that impact their attempts at regime change. It was found that even though the regime has used many destabilizing tactics, the opposition’s strategies had a negative impact as well that prevented them in many occasions to achieve a regime change. Through the data analyzed, it could be evidenced various mechanisms that led to this: simultaneous protests and negotiations were found to be counterproductive for their overall strategy, while collaboration in government institutions caused internal divisions, leading to abstention during elections and weakening the opposition's ability to challenge the government. Boycotts by major opposition parties combined with the participation of smaller factions also weakened their ability to pose a credible threat and conceded the electoral field to the regime. Finally, the opposition's reliance on Western powers isolated the regime, making it unafraid of Western leverage and strengthening autocratic linkages with other countries.

Keywords

Venezuela, opposition, regime authoritarian, change regime, Maduro, Nicolás

Language used: English

Date on which the thesis was submitted / produced: 29. 4. 2023

Thesis defence

• Date of defence: 22. 5. 2023
• Supervisor: Mgr. Barbora Vališková, Ph.D.
• Reader: Ing. Mgr. Michelle Leisky, Ph.D.

University of Hradec Králové

Faculty of Arts

Bachelor programme / field:
Political Science / Political Science