Computer simulations for economic evaluation of land recovery following radionuclide contamination

Ing. Bc. Anna Selivanova

Doctoral thesis

Abstract:

The present study is dedicated to the development of a mathematical model for the recovery of areas affected by radionuclide releases. It focuses on mathematical modelling, with particular emphasis on atmospheric dispersion, radiation transport, and decontamination strategies. The recovery model was developed using the System Dynamics approach, which is well-suited for analysing complex systems demonstrating non-linear behaviour, e.g., radioactive decay. The recovery model was created using Vensim software. The proposed model integrates dosimetry assessments with economic evaluations. It addresses the decontamination of various urban and rural objects, including buildings, agricultural land, forests, and transportation infrastructure. To obtain the necessary input parameters, simulations were performed using specialized tools, namely JRODOS and MCNP. Furthermore, empirical data concerning the demographic structure of Czechia, building characteristics, and land-use were incorporated. Consequently, a cost-benefit analysis of relevant countermeasures was conducted, reflecting the current conditions in Czechia. In scenarios involving low atmospheric releases, extensive decontamination would not be required. In contrast, in the case of severe accidents, the simulated decontamination outcomes were consistent with empirical data obtained from the Chernobyl and Fukushima clean-up experience. Subsequently, sensitivity analyses were performed to identify critical parameters and relevant thresholds. The results of the study provide a valuable basis for decision-making by policymakers and other stakeholders engaged in emergency preparedness and response.

Keywords

cost-benefit analysis, nuclear power plant, System Dynamics, accident, atmospheric dispersion, decontamination, modelling, Monte Carlo simulations, radiation, radionuclide release

Language used: English

Date on which the thesis was submitted / produced: 7. 5. 2025

Thesis defence

• Supervisor: doc. Ing. Igor Krejčí, Ph.D.
• Reader: Robert Hlavatý, Ph.D., doc. Ing., Vladimír Bureš, externi, Marie Davídková, externi

Czech University of Life Sciences Prague

Faculty of Economics and Management

Doctoral programme:
Systems Engineering and Informatics