Climate and water related risks and opportunities for citrus production under climate change

Ondřej Šebek

Master's thesis

Abstract:

Areas that currently grow citrus may lose suitability due to projected changes in fundamental climatic parameters. This study presents a conceptual climate suitability model that simulates potential climate induced effects on citrus fruit growth. Future climate projections were used to map changes in climate suitability across the Mediterranean Basin to investigate the effects of projected changes in temperature, rainfall and other agroclimatic variables. Model simulations indicate significant decrease of frost risk and potential losses virtually all across the study area, while highest concentration is simulated over inland regions with generally higher altitudes predominantly in Spain, Italy, Morocco and Turkey, and marginally over the rest of Europe. This trend is however counter affected by elevated heat stress resulting in suboptimal conditions during the most susceptible stages of fruit growth, i.e. the flowering and fruit set periods, and results in decreasingly suitable conditions for the development of the characteristic rind colouration in anthocyanin-coloured citrus cultivars. Though, as the positive response to projected climate change in marginal and less suitable locations does not outweigh the overall higher suitability in regions with currently suitable climate conditions, it cannot be concluded that citrus production simply shifting to these areas will be an effective response to projected climate change. Adaptation through appropriate management practices will need to compensate for elevated environmental stress on the crop to ensure feasibility of citrus production, though citrus cultivars with less stringent requirements can be expected to challenge economic suitability of more susceptible species.

Keywords

citrus, climate suitability, climate change

Language used: English

Date on which the thesis was submitted / produced: 2. 3. 2020

Thesis defence

• Supervisor: doc. Ing. Martin Hanel, Ph.D.

Czech University of Life Sciences Prague

Faculty of Environmental Sciences

Master programme / field:
Landscape Engineering / Environmental Modelling