Impact of Climate Change on Maize and Cocoyam prices in Ghana

Kweku Adumetey

Diplomová práce

Abstract:

This study analyzes the short-run effects of climatic variables on agricultural commodity prices in Ghana, with emphasis on maize and cocoyam markets. Quarterly time series data spanning 2009 to 2023 are employed, and two Autoregressive Distributed Lag model specifications are estimated. Maize price is used as the dependent variable in the first model, while cocoyam price is used in the second. The explanatory variables include precipitation, rainfall, temperature, and carbon dioxide emissions. The results show that precipitation and rainfall exert significant short-run effects on prices in both commodity markets. Excessive precipitation raises prices through disruptions to production and market supply, whereas adequate rainfall enhances output and contributes to price stabilization. Temperature displays a negative but statistically weak effect, suggesting limited short-run price sensitivity due to adaptive farming practices. Carbon dioxide emissions (CO₂) remain statistically insignificant across both models, indicating minimal immediate influence on domestic commodity prices within the study period. Diagnostic tests confirm the stability and adequacy of the estimated models. Overall, the findings demonstrate the vulnerability of Ghana’s agricultural commodity prices to rainfall-related shocks and underscore the importance of climate-resilient agricultural systems. Policy measures focused on irrigation expansion, climate information services, and post-harvest infrastructure are critical for reducing price volatility and improving food security.

Keywords

Maize, Cocoyam, Climate change

Jazyk práce: angličtina

Datum vytvoření / odevzdání či podání práce: 1. 4. 2026

Obhajoba závěrečné práce

• Obhajoba proběhla 25. 5. 2026
• Vedoucí: Ing. Michal Čermák, Ph.D.
• Oponent: Jiří Čermák, externi

Česká zemědělská univerzita v Praze

Provozně ekonomická fakulta

Magisterský studijní program:
Economics and Management