“The Shutdown Heard Round the World”: A closer look at the unintended economic consequences of mass uncompromising lockdowns in response to the Covid-19 Virus.

David Bainbridge

Master's thesis

Abstract:

In March of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic took the world by storm. A seemingly unique viral phenomenon with high contagion seemed to threaten humanity and society as we knew it. Individuals were forced to make difficult decisions and sometimes sacrifices for themselves and for loved ones. Public policy makers worldwide, on the national and local levels, interceded en masse to attempt to limit the effects of this plague of unprecedented virality. While COVID-19 policy responses possessed multitudinous direct effects on particular industries, economies, sectors, and people groups, a nearly universal and uniform response regarded education. For some time, education from pre-school to post-graduate studies was essentially brought to a halt because of public lockdown orders. Mass school closures not only led to sub-par education for some students, but learning loss, school meals and increased inequality for students with less means around the world. This study examines the effects of school closures on a global and nearly uniform scale. It does so primarily by examining quantitative data during and following the majority of school closures. The data largely tracks learning loss among affected students, resulting wealth loss, closure of school feeding programs, effects on student health, and the resulting rising inequality for students and regions worldwide. The study also approaches the subject from a qualitative perspective by contextualizing the public policy process with the economic Theory of Unseen Consequences. Through the lens of unseen costs and consequences, the study anticipates that blanket public policy decisions render unanticipated results that often supersede initial concerns. The goal of the study is to analyze the results of the public policy response to COVID-19 toward education in order to better understand the aforementioned economic theory and extract important lessons for future policy responses.

Abstract:

In March of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic took the world by storm. A seemingly unique viral phenomenon with high contagion seemed to threaten humanity and society as we knew it. Individuals were forced to make difficult decisions and sometimes sacrifices for themselves and for loved ones. Public policy makers worldwide, on the national and local levels, interceded en masse to attempt to limit the effects of this plague of unprecedented virality. While COVID-19 policy responses possessed multitudinous direct effects on particular industries, economies, sectors, and people groups, a nearly universal and uniform response regarded education. For some time, education from pre-school to post-graduate studies was essentially brought to a halt because of public lockdown orders. Mass school closures not only led to sub-par education for some students, but learning loss, school meals and increased inequality for students with less means around the world. This study examines the effects of school closures on a global and nearly uniform scale. It does so primarily by examining quantitative data during and following the majority of school closures. The data largely tracks learning loss among affected students, resulting wealth loss, closure of school feeding programs, effects on student health, and the resulting rising inequality for students and regions worldwide. The study also approaches the subject from a qualitative perspective by contextualizing the public policy process with the economic Theory of Unseen Consequences. Through the lens of unseen costs and consequences, the study anticipates that blanket public policy decisions render unanticipated results that often supersede initial concerns. The goal of the study is to analyze the results of the public policy response to COVID-19 toward education in order to better understand the aforementioned economic theory and extract important lessons for future policy responses.

Keywords

Unseen Consequences, education, decisionmaker(s), school closure(s), shutdown(s)

Language used: English

Date on which the thesis was submitted / produced: 7. 6. 2023

Thesis defence

• Date of defence: 7. 6. 2023
• Supervisor: MBA Dan Ravick Fiala
• Reader: Mgr. Jan Gazda, Ph.D.

CEVRO Institute

Master programme / field:
Philosophy, Politics, Economics / Philosophy, Politics, Economics