Surface Urban Heat Island in Prague: Retrospective Analysis, Heat-Related Mortality Links, and COVID-19 Lockdown Effect

Ing. Tugba Dogan

Doctoral thesis

Abstract:

In the face of escalating climate change, the frequency and intensity of heatwaves are projected to rise. Concurrently, the urban heat island effect exacerbates the adverse impacts of heatwaves, leading to an increase in heat-related mortality. To effectively address these mounting challenges, it is imperative to gain a comprehensive understanding of the effects of environmental changes on urban heat islands and their implications for public health. This study aims to provide a holistic assessment of the multifaceted impacts of urbanization on urban heat islands and establish a correlation with heat-related mortality during heat waves. This is achieved through three interconnected case studies, each with a distinct focus: the temporal evolution of Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) due to land cover change, the impacts of reduced emissions during the COVID-19 lockdown on atmospheric and surface Urban Heat Islands (UHIs), and the spatio-temporal relationships between SUHI intensity and heat-related mortality in Prague, Czechia. The first case study leverages CORINE Land Cover products and Landsat satellite images from five pivotal periods (1990, 2000, 2006, 2012, and 2018) to evaluate the effects of land cover change on SUHI. The second case study assesses the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on UHI dynamics by comparing satellite images and weather station data from the lockdown period in March–April 2020 with a reference period in March–April 2017–2019. Daily MODIS images are used to examine changes in mean SUHI, while air temperature data from Prague weather stations are employed to analyze atmospheric UHI. The final case study explores the links between spatial distribution LST and heat-related mortality during heat waves using daily MODIS land surface temperature images and daily all-cause mortality data in ten Prague districts. Distributed lag non-linear models, adjusted for long-term trendsand seasonal cycles, are used to establish heat-related mortality risk of major heatwaves in Prague between 2001 and 2020. In conclusion, this thesis provides a comprehensive exploration of the complex interplay between urbanization, urban heat islands, and heat-related mortality. It underscores the importance of understanding these dynamics to develop effective strategies to mitigate the impacts of heatwaves, enhance urban resilience, and promote public health.

Keywords

urban heat island, surface urban heat island, anthropogenic heat, heat-related mortality

Language used: English

Date on which the thesis was submitted / produced: 21. 3. 2024

Thesis defence

• Supervisor: Mgr. Aleš Urban, Ph.D.
• Reader: Peter Kumble, Ph.D., doc., Lena Halounová, externi, Aziz ŞİŞMAN, externi

Czech University of Life Sciences Prague

Faculty of Environmental Sciences

Doctoral programme / field:
Landscape Engineering / Environmental Modelling