Turkish foreign policy in the Western Balkans: Multi-faceted policy of continuity under AKP? Case study of Kosovo, North Macedonia and Serbia

Bojana Zoric

Disertační práce

Abstract:

This PhD dissertation takes a unique and comprehensive approach to examining Turkish foreign policy dynamics in the Western Balkans. It focuses on three distinct case studies: Kosovo, North Macedonia, and Serbia. The deliberate selection of these countries, each with its unique attributes within the region, ensures a comprehensive understanding of the diverse aspects such as culture, religion, economy, politics and others. The aim is to highlight unique and representative characteristics by choosing countries with distinct profiles instead of those with similar attributes. The dissertation argues that by adopting a more pragmatic foreign policy, relations with the Western Balkans can be strengthened, and the regional position can be enhanced. This shift occurred in response to Türkiye’s economic decline and internal political struggles after the 2016 coup attempt. The country redirected its focus toward domestic issues rather than emphasizing historical ties and regional practices. This has led to a more pragmatic mode of cooperation with Western Balkan countries, even those with no solid historical, religious, or cultural connections. The research unravels the complex and context-specific nature of Türkiye’s engagement in the region, highlighting the importance of a nuanced understanding of foreign policy amidst a rapidly evolving international landscape. By considering historical, religious, political, economic, and strategic factors, among others, the dissertation aims to emphasize how these elements shape Türkiye’s foreign policy in the region. This comprehensive analysis addresses the need to contextualize Turkish foreign policy, reflecting contemporary multifaceted and multidimensional aspects of international relations. The selected timeline for the study covers twenty years, from 2002 to 2022, which coincides with the AKP rising to power. Primary data were collected through 48 semi-structured interviews between January and April 2024. Deductive thematic analysis was used for qualitative analysis, identifying patterns and comparing themes across the case studies. Quantitative data from interviews were statistically evaluated using Friedman’s analysis of variance test for related samples, Kendall’s coefficient of concordance to assess the level of agreement among different experts, and Kruskal Wallis test to test differences between independent samples on rank data. Additional primary sources included official documents, speeches, and interviews with state officials, political and religious leaders, diplomats, people in business, and media representatives. Secondary data were gathered from various sources, including records of high-level visits between Türkiye and the three countries, policy papers, economic indicators, and public opinion polls. This dissertation significantly contributes to the ongoing debate about non-Western influences in the Western Balkans and their impact on the regional dynamics within Euro-Atlantic integration. It introduces a novel perspective by utilizing the security-oriented conceptual framework developed by the RAND Corporation. It avoids categorizing influences into simplistic binary characterizations and seeks to illuminate the particularities of Turkish foreign policy. Recognizing that various influences are intertwined, it aims to avoid oversimplifying the complexity of the dynamics at play. The theoretical framework of this study integrates other key concepts, such as soft power, hybrid warfare, and smart power, which combine coercive and soft power tools. The research also incorporates personalized power, highlighting neo-patrimonialism in bilateral relations. Following the concept of RAND influence operations, six distinct types of influence operations were identified: official diplomacy, public diplomacy, religious diplomacy, economic operations, information operations, and security influence. These types were selected for their relevance to the Western Balkans and thei

Abstract:

r ability to analyze Türkiye’s varied toolbox comprehensively. The findings reveal significant differences in Türkiye’s foreign policy execution across the Western Balkans, with notable strategic variations in its engagement with Kosovo, North Macedonia, and Serbia. Türkiye’s approach is tailored to each country’s socio-political context, reflecting its adaptability and strategic prioritization. Türkiye’s foreign policy is also subject to internal policy shifts, reflecting a broader trend of adapting policy making to evolving regional and international circumstances. This nuanced approach challenges prevailing stereotypes and highlights Türkiye’s unique position in the region, distinguishing it from other non-EU actors and underscoring the importance of a tailored understanding of its influence. Türkiye’s engagement aligns with local cultural, religious, and economic dynamics in Kosovo and North Macedonia. Conversely, in Serbia, the focus has shifted towards economic and geopolitical interests, particularly after 2016. The analysis also reveals a distinct evolution in Türkiye’s approach to the region over time. From 2002 to 2016, under Ahmet Davutoğlu, the policy was characterized by strategic goals rooted in historical and ideational sentiment. However, the period from 2016 onwards, following President Erdoğan’s ascendancy, marked a transition to a more pragmatic and economically oriented strategy. This shift is notably illustrated by Türkiye’s changing relations with Serbia, moving from historically strained ties to a more economically driven partnership. Türkiye’s alignment with Euro-Atlantic objectives presents opportunities for enhanced cooperation with the EU. This alignment opens avenues for future research to explore potential collaborative efforts that could lead to a more cohesive policy framework regarding Türkiye in the Western Balkans. Collaborative research between academic institutions in the Western Balkans and Türkiye could foster mutual understanding and enhance the analysis of Turkish and EU policy compatibility. Moreover, analyzing the dynamics of EU-Türkiye and NATO-Türkiye relations is crucial for elucidating the extent and nature of Turkish influence in the region. Expanding the scope of research to include Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro will offer a more comprehensive view of Turkish influence across the entire region. Longitudinal studies could further elucidate the evolving nature of Turkish influence and its long-term impacts. Future research should also consider refining the RAND framework of influence operations to better account for the highly dynamic and rapidly evolving information environment, particularly addressing the speed and unpredictability with which information spreads and impacts targeted populations. These potential research directions inspire hope for a deeper understanding of Turkish foreign policy dynamics and its implications for the Western Balkans.

Keywords

Türkiye, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkish foreign policy, Western Balkans, EU, NATO, influence operations, Islam, Ottoman Empire, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, authoritarianism, soft power.

Jazyk práce: angličtina

Datum vytvoření / odevzdání či podání práce: 14. 8. 2024

Obhajoba závěrečné práce

• Obhajoba proběhla 27. 9. 2024
• Vedoucí: doc. PhDr. Věra Stojarová, Ph.D.
• Oponent: Mgr. Vladimir Vučković, Ph.D., doc. Mgr. Vladimir Đorđević, Ph.D.

Masarykova univerzita

Fakulta sociálních studií

Doktorský studijní program / obor:
Political Science / Political Science