Impact of climate change on economic growth in Pakistan

B.Sc. Muhammad Umer Zahid, BSc

Diplomová práce

Abstract:

This thesis examines how climate change shapes economic growth in Pakistan by analyzing the roles of temperature, rainfall, and carbon dioxide emissions alongside key development factors. Using a quantitative time-series framework, the study distinguishes between immediate, lagged, and persistent effects to capture short-run reactions and longer-term adjustment patterns. The findings show that economic growth responds strongly to contemporaneous temperature changes and emission-intensive activity, while rainfall primarily disrupts output without generating measurable gains. Lagged climate indicators display weak influence, indicating limited carryover of climate shocks into subsequent growth periods. In contrast, infrastructure development emerges as the only structural factor with consistent positive impact when persistence is considered, highlighting its importance in supporting productivity under climate stress. The results also reveal an intertemporal trade-off, where current emission-driven expansion imposes future economic costs. Overall, the evidence portrays Pakistan’s growth as highly reactive and carbon-dependent, with limited internal resilience to climate variability. The thesis concludes that sustained economic stability requires a shift from short-term, emission-led expansion toward climate-resilient infrastructure and adaptive development planning, providing empirical guidance for designing growth strategies that can withstand increasing environmental pressures.

Keywords

CO2 Emissions per Capita, Economic Growth, GDP per Capita, Climate Change, Pakistan, Rainfall, Regression Analysis, Temperature, Time Series Data, Stata

Jazyk práce: angličtina

Datum vytvoření / odevzdání či podání práce: 3. 4. 2026

Obhajoba závěrečné práce

• Obhajoba proběhla 4. 6. 2026
• Vedoucí: prof. Ing. Petr Procházka, MSc Ph.D.
• Oponent: Hana Hönigová, externi

Česká zemědělská univerzita v Praze

Provozně ekonomická fakulta

Magisterský studijní program:
Economics and Management